Friday, November 29, 2019

Who is Luis Lacalle Pou ?



Luis Lacalle Pou wins the elections in Uruguay and ends 15 years of leftist government. The heir who ended the Frente Amplio (Broad Front party) cycle and will be the youngest elected president in Uruguayan history.

Son of former President Luis Alberto Lacalle and great-grandson of the leader of the Luis Alberto de Herrera National Party, he arrives at the government on his second attempt.

Luis Lacalle Pou has the paradoxical virtue of being a familiar face, as a member of a family of political tradition, and a refreshing figure for his youth and the renewal he represents in the National Party (PN). With these ingredients he came to the presidency of Uruguay after defeating in a hard-fought ballot the official candidate Daniel Martínez and thus ended the 15-year cycle of the Frente Amplio (FA) in the Uruguayan government.




Lacalle Pou was born in a wealthy family in Montevideo. Second of four brothers, he studied in a private college and university where he studied law, although he never practiced. Now he also lives in a luxurious neighborhood in the Uruguayan capital with his wife and two children. Great-grandson of Luis Alberto de Herrera, the historic leader of the National Party that catapulted him to power, and the son of former President Luis Alberto Lacalle (1990-1995) and former Senator Julia Pou could only dedicate himself to politics.

Thus, two years after finishing his university studies, he threw himself into the political arena, being elected as a national deputy, a position he revalidated twice, the last in 2010. He has forged his entire career in Congress.

In 2014, he decided to go one step further and opted for a presidential candidacy. After prevailing in the primary elections, he was in the first round at a distance of 17 percentage points from the FA candidate, Tabaré Vázquez. In the ballot, he reduced the difference to 13, just as far away from Vázquez, who returned to power.

This year he decided to try again, after overcoming for the second time the internal screening of the National Party and with the Broad Front extremely weakened after fifteen years of government.




In the first round held on October 27th, Martinez took almost 10 points ahead of Lacalle Pou. However, the opponent managed to get the backing of the main opposition blocks, which outlined him as the big favorite for the ballot.

To his credit he has the popularity and political solvency of his family and, at the same time, with the fact of being the youngest presidential candidate in the country's history, a breath of fresh air just when Uruguayans seem to seek alternatives to the Frente Amplio .

In addition, he has declared himself willing to form a coalition government that would include members of the main parties: the National (center-right), the Colorado (center), Cabildo Open (ultra-right) and even the Broad Front (left).

On March 1st 2020, with 46 years, he will become the democratically youngest President-elect in the history of Uruguay.

Source: Infobae

















Saturday, November 16, 2019

Chile: Agreement for Peace and New Constitution



The government of Sebastian Piñera and the opposition reached an agreement for a new constitution.

It will be the first time in history that Chile has a Magna Carta born from the democratic debate, because the previous ones -that of 1833, 1925 and 1980- were preceded by a civil war, noise of sabers and a coup d'etat. It is not clear that a new Constitution manages to appease the protests, which exploded on October 18th as an expression of a good part of the citizens who feel outside the path of development of Chile in recent decades. The political class, however, is committed to deliver a solid signal to the public, which has no confidence in any of the democratic institutions, revealing a serious state crisis. "

What will the history books say about what happened in the early hours of this Friday, November 15th? First they will say the basics. That on this day 90% of the political forces signed an agreement called "For Peace and a New Constitution."

They will say that this understanding initiated a process to write a new Magna Carta for Chile, starting with a plebiscite in April 2020, where it will be voted whether or not Chileans want to replace the current Constitution, and how they want to do it.

But the historical texts will also have to add that the transversal agreement was signed just four weeks after a violent outbreak that destroyed a relevant portion of the Santiago Metro network and that included looting, vandalism, church burns, public service headquarters, and of political parties.

The new constitution will carry this "prequel" and probably that will force it with greater reason for its elaboration to reach very high levels of legitimacy. That is what the political forces that signed the agreement tried, by establishing that the new fundamental laws must be approved by 2/3 of the constituent body that is defined via plebiscite. And then the full text must be ratified by a referendum where there will be a mandatory vote.

Anyway, what will start from today is a discussion about how this new constitution should be.




On November 15th, Chile achieved a pact to change its Magna Carta. But what is the agreement really about and why is it historic?

After 28 days of massive protests -in which the citizens demanded to end with a "system of abuses" and greater equality-, the Chilean political class reached a historic agreement around one of the main demands of the protesters: the change to the Constitution.

The negotiation was not easy. Leaders of all political sectors -with the exception of the Communist Party (PC)- remained long hours in Parliament discussing and trying to agree on a formula that would leave everyone more or less satisfied.

"Tonight is historic for Chile," said Senate President Jaime Quintana. "We are responsible, indeed, for many of the injustices that Chileans have pointed out to us," he said.

Broadly speaking, the pact established the convening of a referendum in April 2020 and in which Chileans will have to answer two questions: first, whether or not they want a new Constitution; and, second, what kind of body should write it.

Although it is still difficult to predict whether or not this will calm the rage of the protesters, various public figures -and of different political sectors- have positively valued the agreement and called for "social peace."





But what is consensus really about? Why is it historical? 

1 - The most important points of the pact
The first most relevant point of the agreement is the realization of a plebiscite in April 2020 where Chileans must answer two questions:

* Do you want a new Constitution?

I approve or reject.

* What kind of body should write the new Constitution?

Constitutional mixed convention or constitutional convention.

What is the difference between both methods? While the "mixed constitutional convention" will be made up of 50% of parliamentarians in office and 50% of citizens elected for the occasion, the "constitutional convention" will consist only of citizens elected for that purpose.

With the result of the plebiscite, the election of the members that will make up any of these two instances will take place in October 2020 under universal suffrage. This will happen at the same time as the regional and municipal elections.

As a method of election, the agreement text states that "the same electoral system that governs the elections of deputies in the corresponding proportion will be used".

On the other hand, the pact of Chilean politicians points out that the term of operation of the constituent body in charge of drafting the new Fundamental Charter will be up to 9 months, extendable only once for three months.

This body must approve the voting rules and regulations of the same under a quorum of 2/3 (66.6%) of its members.

Sixty days after the delivery of the new constitutional text by this body, a ratifying referendum will be held with universal and mandatory suffrage.

Finally, the new Constitution will govern at the time of its promulgation and publication organically repealing the current Constitution (issued in 1980 during the Government of Augusto Pinochet).

Whatever the constituent body (mixed constitutional convention or constitutional convention), it must be dissolved once the task entrusted to it has been completed, that is, to write a new Fundamental Charter.




2 - Why is it historical ?
The political leaders who signed the pact considered this agreement "historic."

But how true is that statement?

The doctor of political science of the University College London (UCL), Javier Sajuria, explains to BBC Mundo that the historical character is due to the fact that "never in Chile has a Constitution been drafted by an elected body or with citizen participation."

"It has always been done by small groups, either experts or politicians, without much feedback during the process," says the academic.

On the other hand, there are those who say that it is historic due to the "breadth of the agreement", being signed from a party as conservative as the Independent Democratic Union (UDI) to members of the left-wing coalition called Frente Amplio.

Source: BBC, T13, El Libero, Author's notes

Saturday, November 02, 2019

The Evolution of the Chilean Crisis (I)




The string of mobilizations that began with the rise in the subway fare and that revealed various unresolved social demands, have been analyzed by different unions and companies in recent days.

But the mea culpa is shared. Much of the responsibility is attributed to the political class, who have kept the most relevant reforms in the congress locked or with little progress.

In terms of inequality, “There was a great growth of the middle class but it is a precarious middle class, which has low pensions, high levels of debt, that lives a lot on credit and has very low salaries. It is a situation where everyday life is precarious, living with uncertainty" (BBC World).





In relation to the expectations of social improvements, the Chilean political class has been promising improvements in the quality of life of people in Chile for years.

Educational, constitutional, tax and health reforms have been announced but many of them have failed to meet society's expectations.

Social unrest, then, has resulted in this outbreak that is ending with the destruction of a hundred public spaces in different cities in Chile.




The violent protests that have caused the closure of businesses, the paralysis of transport, the interruption of supplies of goods and the insecurity in the streets will affect employment, will have an impact on economic activity, on consumer prices and levels of population consumption. However, and considering that the manifestations have been decreasing economic activity should tend to normalize and not affect the projection of 2020.

* You could also read: The riots that shook Chile

Among the proposals of the entrepreneurial and social world to overcome the social conflict are:

- Demonstrate that companies are at the service of people and not just their shareholders.

- Generate greater flexibility in working conditions and improve social benefits within the company.

- Evaluate the possibility of offering minimum monthly salaries close to CL$ 500,000 (app USD 690).

- Access to credit for financing new ventures.





On the other hand and through a platform for citizen participation created by a small team of Chileans committed to democracy, other priorities have been obtained that they would like to see addressed.

"Chilecracia.org" does not use a traditional voting mechanism, but rather a system of ranking citizen preferences based on peer comparison. In this technique, two items are placed next to each other and people should choose the one they prefer.

There is a list of 90 proposals for which chilean citizens can vote. These are shown in random order in pairs of options, of which only one preference (vote) can be marked. After marking the preference, another pair of proposals appears for a next vote, and so on. There are a total of 4,005 possible pairs; Chilecracia keeps each vote, so that the participant can stop at any time.




The result of the selections is used to create a network of preferences that is used to establish priority rankings. These priority rankings can then be analyzed according to various variables (sex, age, region, political orientation).

Having registered 5,500,000 votes, the most relevant topics for Chilean citizens who have participated up to now are:

1) Minimum Pension Equal or Greater than Minimum Salary

2) Increase Minimum Salary

3) Set the salary of politicians as a proportion of the minimum wage

4) Water deprivatization

5) Effective jail for Collusion offenses

6) Free Public Transportation for Senior Citizens

7) Eliminate obstacles and punishments with pre-existing diseases in Isapre 
    and Fonasa (health systems)

8) Universal Health Insurance

9) Limit Price or Gain of Medicines

10) Reduction of salaries of high public officials



There is a coincidence that we must continue on the path of growth and development, but now a new social agenda is added that contributes to improve people's conditions.