Primary Elections in Argentina

 

The President of Argentina, Alberto Fernández, and Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
at a press conference after Sunday's primaries (Photo: AFP)

Kirchnerism suffers an electoral catastrophe in the primary elections in Argentina

The candidates of the Government to Congress lose in all the most important districts, including the province of Buenos Aires, stronghold of Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

Kirchnerism has a lot to worry about. Its candidates to fight for a seat in Congress on November 14th have lost in primary elections in 18 of the 24 districts of the country, according to official results, including the province of Buenos Aires, a historic stronghold of Peronism and responsible for 40% of the votes to nationals.

The opposition, gathered in "Juntos por el Cambio", the coalition that brought Mauricio Macri to power in 2015, retains its traditional districts (the city of Buenos Aires, Mendoza and Córdoba), and wins in provinces that tend to be wayward to the right, such as Chaco, La Pampa, Tierra del Fuego, Misiones and even Santa Cruz, the political cradle of Kirchnerism.

In the primaries, only candidates are chosen, in this case deputies and senators, but as all Argentines are obliged to vote in them, the result is usually an advance of the final elections. That is why the coup has been extremely harsh, and its consequences still unpredictable, for the Government of Alberto Fernández.

The opposition victory places the mayor of the Argentine capital, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, in the race for the presidency in 2023.

Horacio Rodriguez Larreta

President Fernández admitted the opposition triumph along with the main candidates and Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. “We have not done something right so that people do not join us and all of us who are here listen to the verdict. There is a demand that we have not satisfied and that from tomorrow we will pay attention to it, ”he said.

Argentines participated this Sunday in an original electoral experiment, with the election of candidates in primary, open, mandatory and simultaneous elections. The PASO, as they are called, thus become a referendum of the official management. The Government was aware of the difficulties it was facing: the economy in tailspin, the product of three years of recession and the paralysis of the pandemic, and unforced errors by Alberto Fernández and his environment and the increasingly evident fights within the coalition, with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as the protagonist.

She expected, however, a narrow victory in the province of Buenos Aires and first place in the total sum of national votes. None of that has happened. Even with Peronism united. The map of the Argentine provinces has been tinted yellow, the color of Together for Change, and Peronism loses control of the interior of the country, the source of its power.

      

The results give a dimension of the catastrophe. In the province of Buenos Aires, with 97% of the polls scrutinized, the opposition coalition gets 38%, against 33.6% of the ruling "Frente de Todos". In Capital, the Macrismo got 48.3% of the votes, against 24.6% of Peronism. In the interior of the country, the Government has not fared better, even in traditionally Peronist districts such as La Pampa (48.8% against 38.3%) or Chaco (44.2% against 35.5%). The government candidates have only added more votes than their rivals in Tucumán, Catamarca, La Rioja, Formosa, San Juan and Santiago del Estero.

The result elevates as leader of the opposition the Mayor of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who armed the election with his own candidates, to the detriment of the most radicalized sectors of the coalition, represented by Mauricio Macri.

The loss of the province of Buenos Aires and other traditionally Peronists was not even in the most pessimistic projections.

                                         

"The defeat is partly explained by economic reasons," says Eduardo Fidanza, director of the Poliarquía consulting firm. “The value of wages has deteriorated, inflation levels are intolerable and the Government has not been able to compensate with the management of the pandemic.

Javier Milei

From Together for Change, everything has been celebrations. The primaries also revealed the emergence of a right-wing force hitherto unknown in Argentina. The economist Javier Milei, defender of Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, was the third force in the capital, with 13.6% of the votes.

Source: El Pais, Clarin & Infobae.

Argentina and the fear of the return of Kirchner

Mauricio Macri - President of Argentina

The baggy triumph of Kirchnerism in the last week primaries has been interpreted by many as the announcement of the end of President Mauricio Macri government and the arrival at the Casa Rosada of the Fernandez-Fernandez de Kirchner duo.

In his statements following the knowledge of the results, the President confirmed that he will continue in the campaign until October with the expectation of reversing the results of last Sunday.

He assumes in his support that in the primaries many citizens wanted to express their protest over the difficult economic situation, but that when electing the president they will prioritize the memory of Cristina Kirchner's mismanagement and the corruption that characterized her government.

President Macri's expectations are not accompanied by the markets. Judging by what happened, they take for granted an upcoming change of government and have operated accordingly. It is also clear that many foreign and local investors and analysts see that change with enormous pessimism. Many serious opinions speak of a return of populism to Argentina.

Just as the Friday before the primaries (known as PASO) Argentine bonds and stocks rose when the polls predicted a very favorable outcome for the ruling party, on Monday, with the results, they collapsed violently. The price of Argentine shares fell by more than 40% in one day, the country risk is around 1500 basic points and the price of the dollar has grown by 25%.

Mauricio Macri's presidency failed to correct the mistakes and consequences of the populism that preceded him. His management began auspiciously, but he opted for a gradualism that did not have enough time to become successful.

Politically correct and fear of social reactions led him very close to a default that could only be avoided with the help of the International Monetary Fund. The necessary adjustment probably should have been carried out more quickly.

There are own faults in the electoral setback, but with a very clear origin in the inheritance he received from Cristina Kirchner. It is a shared fault. There is no doubt that the negative reaction of the markets must be largely attributed to the deplorable fame of Kirchnerism.

The return of Peronism

Macri pays the price of having managed the crisis by reassuring only the IMF and the wealthiest classes

The overwhelming victory obtained by Alberto Fernández-Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Sunday's primaries in Argentina predicts the return to the Casa Rosada of Peronism in the October presidential elections. 

Casa Rosada

In the face of the last-minute predictions and the hope of the markets that justicialism would achieve a tradable victory, the 15 points of advantage (47% vs. 32%) make it clear that Mauricio Macri, who aspires to re-election, does not even seem able to force Peronism to play a second round in two months.

Everything indicates that Peronism will return to power, once again becoming a presumably corrective factor in the social bankruptcy caused by the right. But this time he will do it in a scenario consumed by poverty, foreign debt, recession and galloping deficit, a frame of reference that demands realism and rigorous measures. 

The devastating effects of the economic crisis, the failure of the neoliberal recipe with which Macri arrived at the Casa Rosada and the rapid forgetting of Peronist excesses during Fernández de Kirchner's last term facilitate the new arrival of Peronism.

Neither the cases of corruption that marked the last Peronist presidency nor the suspicions of criminal participation in cases such as the death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman, which reach Fernández de Kirchner, have damaged the expectations of victory of those who, as so many times, they present as the restorers of the progressive message against that of the establishment.

Source: La Nacion, El Periodico, Author's notes.

Ads

PROSUR - Chilean President calls on South American leaders to defend ideas of freedom and respect for human rights

Santiago de Chile - Chilean President Sebastian Piñera encourages the Latin American right and calls his supporters to be "warriors" in the face of 21st century socialism.

During his speech at the Santiago Forum, the President summoned the leaders of the sector to defend the ideas of freedom in each of their countries to "counteract" the influence of the left in the continent.

President Piñera made a clear call to the leaders and right-wing parties in Latin America to defend freedom and respect for human rights in their countries, with the aim of "counteracting" the ideas promoted by the socialism of the 21st century that led to failure in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

During his speech at the Forum of Santiago, organized by the Chilean conglomerate "Chile Vamos", in which they called representatives of different collectives and study centers of the sector at the regional level, the President underscored the need for everyone to act in a coordinated manner to defeat the ideas that the left has permeated in the countries of the continent.

After referring to the political crisis in Venezuela, Piñera recalled that "ten years ago virtually our entire continent was under the influence of misguided ideas of the Sao Paulo Forum, under the auspices of the Cuban Communist Party and the Brazilian Workers' Party, which preached ideas that have failed in the whole world. "

"The fall of the Soviet Union is the best expression of the failure of twentieth century socialism: Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, are the best expressions of the failure of 21st century socialism and for that reason, because there is no evil that lasts 100 years, I am sure that the dictatorships and especially that of Venezuela has his days numbered", he said.

In this context, the head of state said that "today we are sowing a seed to counteract the bad teachings and bad ideas that unfortunately spread and dominated our Latin America from the Forum of Sao Paulo and replace them with the ideas of freedom, respect for people. "

"The State must be at the service of the common good and of the people, and not try to use them or manipulate them in causes that we all know have not only been wrong, but have only led to pain, suffering and death wherever they may have been applied", he said.

In his opinion, "we have to play the mission that corresponds to us: To be the warriors, the ideologists, those who defend our ideas with conviction, with will and with enthusiasm and in that way we will be able to build a Latin America and in each one from our countries more free, prosperous and just societies".

Cuba and Venezuela are dictatorships

During his speech, the president stopped in the Venezuelan situation, saying that "today we have brutal dictatorships and that is something that for a long time the countries of Latin America did not know how to confront: 60 years in Cuba and more than two decades of a democracy that it was transformed into a dictatorship, as it is the case of Venezuela. "

"Because Venezuela and Cuba, let's say it with force and clarity, are dictatorships: there are no political freedoms, no human rights are respected, no separation of powers, no freedom of expression and today we have known sad news, which is the kidnapping of Roberto Marrero, who is the chief of the cabinet of President Juan Guaidó", he stressed.

The President stressed that "once again the Venezuelan dictatorship shows its most miserable and most perverse face to the whole world, I was in Cúcuta and many people ask what was achieved." Many things were achieved: unite, motivate and revive the opposition democracy in Venezuela"

"The world saw a President trying to get humanitarian aid in a peaceful way, medicine and food that the Venezuelan people needed urgently, and it saw, on the other hand, a dictator who brutally repressed his own people and who showed the ugliest and most miserable face of that dictatorship", he concluded.

Source: emol.com

Chilean Government confirms that bi-oceanic corridor with Argentina will be part of the Impulse Plan

Before the end of this year, a meeting between the foreign ministers of Chile, Roberto Ampuero, and Argentina, Jorge Faurie, would be carried out in order to formalize an agreement for the creation of a bioceanic corridor between both countries. This would connect the regions of La Araucanía and the province of Neuquén. The meeting, according to preliminary information, would be made at the border crossing of Pino Hachado, located in the Lonquimay area, in the IX Region.

Precisely, this control is where the binational crossing of the corridor would take place, given that it is a customs office that operates all year round and that does not present periods of closure, since it is located at an altitude of 1,884 meters above sea level.

"The theme of the corridor advances very fast and climbed at the level of the chancelleries. In addition, it was included among the projects of the Impulse Plan, "the mayor of the IX Region, Luis Mayol, told El Mercurio, referring to one of the components of the" National Agreement for Development and Peace in La Araucanía ", which was presented on Monday in Temuco by President Sebastián Piñera.

The mayor said that on the Argentinian side "there is a lot of interest to realize this project, because they are starting to move some (gas) deposits in the sector of Zapala and want to take them through Chilean territory in the direction of Asian countries." The project includes a dry port in Victoria and the departure of cargoes to the sea by the Biobío or Los Ríos, since La Araucanía does not have a maritime terminal.

Mayol added that "for now, the roads we have are going to be reinforced to raise them to a higher standard, so that they have better resistance to the passage of trucks, as well as more comfortable berms," he anticipated.

In addition, he said that "here you can think of bigger things" and revealed, without giving more details, that "there is a company that is asking for information because it is interested in evaluating its participation in building a railroad" that connects with the Argentine railway system.

(Extract source: Lignum-CPI)