Primary Elections in Argentina

 

The President of Argentina, Alberto Fernández, and Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
at a press conference after Sunday's primaries (Photo: AFP)

Kirchnerism suffers an electoral catastrophe in the primary elections in Argentina

The candidates of the Government to Congress lose in all the most important districts, including the province of Buenos Aires, stronghold of Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

Kirchnerism has a lot to worry about. Its candidates to fight for a seat in Congress on November 14th have lost in primary elections in 18 of the 24 districts of the country, according to official results, including the province of Buenos Aires, a historic stronghold of Peronism and responsible for 40% of the votes to nationals.

The opposition, gathered in "Juntos por el Cambio", the coalition that brought Mauricio Macri to power in 2015, retains its traditional districts (the city of Buenos Aires, Mendoza and Córdoba), and wins in provinces that tend to be wayward to the right, such as Chaco, La Pampa, Tierra del Fuego, Misiones and even Santa Cruz, the political cradle of Kirchnerism.

In the primaries, only candidates are chosen, in this case deputies and senators, but as all Argentines are obliged to vote in them, the result is usually an advance of the final elections. That is why the coup has been extremely harsh, and its consequences still unpredictable, for the Government of Alberto Fernández.

The opposition victory places the mayor of the Argentine capital, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, in the race for the presidency in 2023.

Horacio Rodriguez Larreta

President Fernández admitted the opposition triumph along with the main candidates and Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. “We have not done something right so that people do not join us and all of us who are here listen to the verdict. There is a demand that we have not satisfied and that from tomorrow we will pay attention to it, ”he said.

Argentines participated this Sunday in an original electoral experiment, with the election of candidates in primary, open, mandatory and simultaneous elections. The PASO, as they are called, thus become a referendum of the official management. The Government was aware of the difficulties it was facing: the economy in tailspin, the product of three years of recession and the paralysis of the pandemic, and unforced errors by Alberto Fernández and his environment and the increasingly evident fights within the coalition, with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as the protagonist.

She expected, however, a narrow victory in the province of Buenos Aires and first place in the total sum of national votes. None of that has happened. Even with Peronism united. The map of the Argentine provinces has been tinted yellow, the color of Together for Change, and Peronism loses control of the interior of the country, the source of its power.

      

The results give a dimension of the catastrophe. In the province of Buenos Aires, with 97% of the polls scrutinized, the opposition coalition gets 38%, against 33.6% of the ruling "Frente de Todos". In Capital, the Macrismo got 48.3% of the votes, against 24.6% of Peronism. In the interior of the country, the Government has not fared better, even in traditionally Peronist districts such as La Pampa (48.8% against 38.3%) or Chaco (44.2% against 35.5%). The government candidates have only added more votes than their rivals in Tucumán, Catamarca, La Rioja, Formosa, San Juan and Santiago del Estero.

The result elevates as leader of the opposition the Mayor of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who armed the election with his own candidates, to the detriment of the most radicalized sectors of the coalition, represented by Mauricio Macri.

The loss of the province of Buenos Aires and other traditionally Peronists was not even in the most pessimistic projections.

                                         

"The defeat is partly explained by economic reasons," says Eduardo Fidanza, director of the Poliarquía consulting firm. “The value of wages has deteriorated, inflation levels are intolerable and the Government has not been able to compensate with the management of the pandemic.

Javier Milei

From Together for Change, everything has been celebrations. The primaries also revealed the emergence of a right-wing force hitherto unknown in Argentina. The economist Javier Milei, defender of Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, was the third force in the capital, with 13.6% of the votes.

Source: El Pais, Clarin & Infobae.

Argentina and the fear of the return of Kirchner

Mauricio Macri - President of Argentina

The baggy triumph of Kirchnerism in the last week primaries has been interpreted by many as the announcement of the end of President Mauricio Macri government and the arrival at the Casa Rosada of the Fernandez-Fernandez de Kirchner duo.

In his statements following the knowledge of the results, the President confirmed that he will continue in the campaign until October with the expectation of reversing the results of last Sunday.

He assumes in his support that in the primaries many citizens wanted to express their protest over the difficult economic situation, but that when electing the president they will prioritize the memory of Cristina Kirchner's mismanagement and the corruption that characterized her government.

President Macri's expectations are not accompanied by the markets. Judging by what happened, they take for granted an upcoming change of government and have operated accordingly. It is also clear that many foreign and local investors and analysts see that change with enormous pessimism. Many serious opinions speak of a return of populism to Argentina.

Just as the Friday before the primaries (known as PASO) Argentine bonds and stocks rose when the polls predicted a very favorable outcome for the ruling party, on Monday, with the results, they collapsed violently. The price of Argentine shares fell by more than 40% in one day, the country risk is around 1500 basic points and the price of the dollar has grown by 25%.

Mauricio Macri's presidency failed to correct the mistakes and consequences of the populism that preceded him. His management began auspiciously, but he opted for a gradualism that did not have enough time to become successful.

Politically correct and fear of social reactions led him very close to a default that could only be avoided with the help of the International Monetary Fund. The necessary adjustment probably should have been carried out more quickly.

There are own faults in the electoral setback, but with a very clear origin in the inheritance he received from Cristina Kirchner. It is a shared fault. There is no doubt that the negative reaction of the markets must be largely attributed to the deplorable fame of Kirchnerism.

The return of Peronism

Macri pays the price of having managed the crisis by reassuring only the IMF and the wealthiest classes

The overwhelming victory obtained by Alberto Fernández-Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Sunday's primaries in Argentina predicts the return to the Casa Rosada of Peronism in the October presidential elections. 

Casa Rosada

In the face of the last-minute predictions and the hope of the markets that justicialism would achieve a tradable victory, the 15 points of advantage (47% vs. 32%) make it clear that Mauricio Macri, who aspires to re-election, does not even seem able to force Peronism to play a second round in two months.

Everything indicates that Peronism will return to power, once again becoming a presumably corrective factor in the social bankruptcy caused by the right. But this time he will do it in a scenario consumed by poverty, foreign debt, recession and galloping deficit, a frame of reference that demands realism and rigorous measures. 

The devastating effects of the economic crisis, the failure of the neoliberal recipe with which Macri arrived at the Casa Rosada and the rapid forgetting of Peronist excesses during Fernández de Kirchner's last term facilitate the new arrival of Peronism.

Neither the cases of corruption that marked the last Peronist presidency nor the suspicions of criminal participation in cases such as the death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman, which reach Fernández de Kirchner, have damaged the expectations of victory of those who, as so many times, they present as the restorers of the progressive message against that of the establishment.

Source: La Nacion, El Periodico, Author's notes.

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